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Climate Sensitivity Analysis on Maize Yield on the Basis of Precision Crop Production
1A. Nyeki, 2J. Kalmar, 3G. Milics, 3A. J. Kovacs, 4M. Neményi
1. Ms
2. University of West Hungary
3. Dr
4. Prof. Dr.

In this paper by prediction we have defined maize yield in precision plant production technologies according to five different climate change scenarios (Ensembles Project) until 2100 and in one scenario until 2075 using DSSAT v. 4.5.0. CERES-Maize decision support model. Sensitivity analyses were carried out. The novelty of the method presented here is that precision, variable rate technologies from relatively small areas (in our case 2500 m2) enable a large amount of data to be collected and conclusions to be extended to larger areas. We have concluded for the soil chemical parameters that according to the summarized ranking indexes the order is P2O5, clay content, Ca, NO2-NO3-N. Concerning yield, in the model predicting most critical changes 5.22 mm precipitation compensates for 1ppm CO2 increase, or 1 degree temperature maximum increase compensates for 2.18 degrees temperature minimum increase or 18.56 ppm CO2 increase is compensated for by 1 degree temperature minimum increase.

Keyword: maize yield (Ceres-Maize), climate change and impacts, sensitivity analysis, site-specific data collection